Kentucky Derby

[MarylandAG]

Since it is derby week, thought I'd ask, does anyone watch the triple crown races? I actually really enjoy the triple crown and make it a point to watch all three races. I think what I enjoy about it, is the pagentry (sp?) and tradition of the races, I also think that they do a good job of broadcasting the race. What I mean is that they always have stories to tell about the horses or the owners (like the groups of friends that got together and bought FunnyCide), etc. I've been to Churchill Downs (had a meeting in Lousville one time and I went just to say that I had been to the track where they run the derby) and they have a nice museum, with a mini film that gets you pumped up. Of course it makes it interesting when a horse comes to the Belmont with a chance to win the triple crown (Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, and War Emblem the last three years. They come close but not cigar, sometimes I wonder if I'll see a triple crown winner in my lifetime. :o Well enough rambling, first weekend in May, the run for the roses at Churchill, that's as American as the Superbowl and the World Series. :D

[Lonnie75]

I always watch the Triple Crown races. I really thought that Smarty Jones was going to win it all last year until Birdstone caught him at the wire.

All of my family on my mom's side is in the horse racing business. They race quarterhorses however and not thoroughbreds. My uncle is a trainer and has twice won the richest Quarterhorse race...The All American.

[MarylandAG]

That's cool Lonnie. Maybe your uncle can make the jump to the thoroughbreds, hey Bob Baffert started with the quarterhorses now look at him. I really thought Smarty would win it too, but do you remember a few years ago with Real Quiet, man he lost by a nose in the Belmont, that was gut wrenching. Glad I'm not the only one, because I love to watch the horses run, quarterhorses or thoroughbreds doesn't matter. Guess, I'll have to make the Preakness soon since I live close by. As much as I like the races and as long as I've been watching them, I know next to nothing about handicapping or betting on the horses, but now since I live in MD I can go down to the local track and place a bet, so do you have any good advice on betting. I'm not a big gambler but I think it would be fun to place a bet or two or three. :)

An they're off.......down the stretch they come...... ;)

[Lonnie75]

I am a lot better at handicapping quarterhorses. It is hard to handicap a race unless you have a breakdown of their prior races.

My uncle does have a couple of thoroughbreds at his stable but the rest is mostly quarterhorses. He has been training for about 30 years. He is one of the top trainers earnings wise.

Back on topic of the Derby...they need to bring back the old announcer who always said the line "and down the stretch they come!" I love that line.

[MarylandAG]

I agree on the announcer, he put a lot of passion into the call of the race, at least it sounded that way. Have you ever been to Churchill Downs? One thing I found out moving to MD, horse racing is big here. MD is having some trouble though, because the neighboring states (West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Delaware) all have legalized slot machines at several tracks, so the payouts are much higher than they are here in MD. They are trying to legalize slots here too, to keep the racing industry from leaving the state. There are some pretty historic tracks here (Pimlico and Laurel) and they even have harness race tracks :D Anyway, I can't wait for the Derby, fire up the grill and get ready for the run for the roses. :cheesy:

[Lonnie75]

No...I would like to go to Churchill Downs....especially on Derby day. I have been to Lone Star Park, Ruidoso Downs in New Mexico, and Trinity Meadows(when it was still open).

[MarylandAG]

I would love to go to Ruidoso, just to say I've been. Isn't it one of the premier quarter horse tracks? Isn't that where Baffert use to train?

[Lonnie75]

Yeah...it is one of the top Quarterhorse tracks in the country. That is where they run the All American Futurity.

[MarylandAG]

Okay Lonnie, who do you like, Bellamy Road (5-2), High Fly (5-1), Afleet Alex (5-1), or Bandini (6-1). The favorite never wins the derby and right now the favorite is Bellamy Road, so I don't think he will win. He likes to take the lead and will have trouble in the derby as there are several pacesetters. He has been lightly raced, so even though his bandwagon is filling fast, I have my doubts. I think horses that are stalkers, and come of the pace, usually fair very well in the derby. Looks like Spanish Chestnut will be a rabbit for Bandini and he will probably set a blistering pace, unless of course he has trouble on the break or gets in a traffic jam. So who do you like? any of the horses above, or does one come out of nowhere and win the derby?

[Lonnie75]

You will have to give me a little time to look at these horses. Belamy Road is the only one that I know anything on at the moment. Which horse is it that George Steinbrenner owns?

Favorites do win the Derby...Wasn't Smarty Jones the favorite last year?

[MarylandAG]

Steinbrenner owns Bellamy Road, the favorite right now. Smarty wasn't the favorite it was The Cliffs Edge. I'm sure pretty sure that FunnyCide and War Emblem weren't the favorites. In fact I think the last time a favorite won the derby was Fusachi (sp?) Pegasus. I'll try to find some sources, but at least in recent years last 5 or so, being dubbed the favorite has meant doom.

[MarylandAG]

Here you go Lonnie, it's actually like a curse.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/more/horseracing/2000/triplecrown/kentucky/news/2000/05/02/derby_favorites_ap/

Fusachi Pegasus won as the favorite in 2000, I believe, but before him it had been since 1979 that a favorite won the derby. In twenty one years only one favorite won. It hasn't gotten much better for the favorite since the Pegasus, Point Given I think was the favorite the year after and Monarchos won, the next year it was Harlans Holiday that was the favorite and War Emblem won, the next year it was Empire Maker and FunnyCide won, then Smarty took out The Cliff's Edge.

[Lonnie75]

Bandini might be a good one to go with. He is out of Fusaichi Pegasus.
Andromeda's Hero is out of Fusaichi Pegasus as well.

Sun King is out of Charismatic. There are 3 horses out of former Derby winners.

I think that I will go with Bandini to win.

[Vlyrock]

Field for 131st Kentucky Derby
Pos. Horse Jockey Odds
1 Sort It Out Blanc 50-1
2 Andromeda's Hero Bejarano 50-1
3 Sun King Prado 15-1
4 Noble Causeway Stevens 12-1
5 Coin Silver Valenzuela 20-1
6 High Limit Dominguez 12-1
7 Flower Alley Chavez 20-1
8 Greater Good McKee 20-1
9 Greeley's Galaxy Desormeaux 15-1
10 Giacomo Smith 50-1
11 High Fly Bailey 8-1
12 Afleet Alex Rose 9-2
13 Spanish Chestnut Bravo 50-1
14 Wilko Nakatani 20-1
15 Bandini Velazquez 6-1
16 Bellamy Road Castellano 5-2
17 Don't Get Mad Baze 30-1
18 Closing Argument Velasquez 30-1
19 Going Wild Valdivia, Jr. 50-1
20 Buzzard's Bay Guidry 20-1

[Vlyrock]

Post your picks...win, place, show. We'll see who the real handicappers are (and who's just handicapped). :D

[MarylandAG]

Sounds like a good idea Vly, lets say we all have until Sat morning to post our picks, that will give us a bit of time to think about it. Just a thought, maybe we should post a notice about this in another forum, not everyone visits the "other sports forum", the more the merrier right :D , this should be fun I would LMAO if someone that doesn't follow the races just picks at random and hits the trifecta :eek: Thanks for listing the post positions and jockeys, btw.

[Lonnie75]

Bandini to WIN
High Fly to PLACE
Bellamy Road to SHOW

[Vlyrock]

I posted about this thread in the Aggie Football Forum...somebody should see it there.