Betting Plays - Week 8

[Loftin]

Vlyrock hasn't made this thread yet, so I'll start it.

Southern Mississippi(+2) @UAB
Syracuse(+13) @Pitt
Northwestern(+11.5) @Michigan State
North Carolina(-1) vs. Virginia
Arkansas(+19.5) @Georgia
Nebraska(+2) @Missouri
Temple(+36.5) @Clemson
Tennessee(+3.5) @Alabama
Washington State(+11.5) @Cal
Rutgers(-3.5) @UCONN
San Jose State(+6.5) vs. Hawaii

[True Blue Aggie]

Fan of the underdog, huh.... :p

Good luck this weekend with the pics

[CoolaidWade]

I looked a little early although I won't bet anything serious until Friday. So far what I like so far, and it's pretty thin, is:

West Virginia -2.5 @ S. Florida
Michigan St. -12 / Northwestern
Nebraska +3 @ Mizzou
Baylor +14 @ OU

Also....

Virginia Tech -10.5 @ Maryland, tomorow. I think there is only maybe 1 or 2 teams that can beat Virginia Tech at home this year but they have been know to suck ass on the road. Plus Maryland is one of those teams that can put together a pretty good plan and end up being pretty scrappy out there.

I can see Virginia Tech winning this game but not covering.

None of those are actual bets yet. I'll tell what I bet on Friday.

[Loftin]

Fan of the underdog, huh.... :p

Good luck this weekend with the pics


Northwestern will likely lose, but they have gotten better every week this season and always play better teams close. +11.5 seemed too easy to me.

Same could be said about Washington State, plus Cal is not as good as people think they are.

Nebraska will beat Mizzou, easily. I think I would take a Nebraska bet if they were -9.

The most Clemson has scored this year is 31. Thier stud RB was hurt last week, so I think +36.5 is too big of a spread for Clemson to cover. Temple is the worst team in Division IA, so Clemson should still win by 25-30 points.

Hawaii is playing bad this year, and they always play bad on the mainland even in a good year. Betting against Hawaii(-6.5) on the road is a good bet, historically.

Pitt and Syracuse is an even match, so -13 is too big a spread for Pitt to cover.

[Vlyrock]

I took UAB (-2) tonight at home vs Southern Miss. I will post my other picks tonight.

[osudoug97]

thin? it looks thick to me as always. bet against osu the rest of the year.
I like the following.
n'western/mich st over the 71
ohio st -15and half (note: buy 2 points just in case)
ou/baylor under the 40 and half
like the ou side at -13 and half (buy half point)
tulsa -15 and half
wisky over the 61 and half
n. Illinois -10
isu -14 half and over the 43
colorado -15 and under the 43 half
miami-o -10 half
penn st -16 half
oregon -10
asu -10 fifteen picks, probably 4 losers, I wish I knew which four.
5 and ten (I wish I would have known which ten)

[Vlyrock]

If you go 11-4, that'd be good. Can somebody please explain to me betting on halfs. I know you can do it -- but what's the art, where's the skill. What do you look at?

I can do whole games and do well (note my season record) -- but I've never tried betting on a half and it's kind of intimidating. For one, you can be disadvantaged if your team doesn't receive first. My picks will still get posted tonight -- but I have to go root for the UAB Blazers so I can start this week off right.

[Vlyrock]

UAB is losing 17-0 and look very, very horrible. I've never seen so many penalties!

If they don't turn it around, they're going to make me and the oddsmakers in Vegas who made them 2.5 pt favorites look very foolish.

[osudoug97]

one of the advantages is that you can get off of some of the losers that you have picked. Here is perfect opportunity, if you think uab is going to turn it around you could bet on them again. However, if you now realize that you are on the wrong side, you can bet on s. miss at the half and probably have a line of +7. I'll play s. miss.

I look at the stats first downs, total yards, rushing, passing, attempts, completions, turnovers, 3rd down conversions, etc. it just gives a general idea but its not as easy as it seems.

TIP: In the pro's the team that is behind usually closes the gap.
TIP 2: In college instead of laying 30 on usc, wait for the half, pray washington keeps it close and take usc -13 and a half.

another example was the osu/a&m total was 27 (I took the over for 200.00)
good luck

[Vlyrock]

I wish UAB would stop trying to block the punt -- that's two running into (or roughing) the kickers that prolonged Southern Mississippi drives.

This is the consecutive plays so far.

Running into the kicker (first down), pass for 7 yards, stuff the run (but offsides results in a first down)...incomplete pass (roughing the passer automatic first down) -- rollout pass 27 yard TD. Man UAB is screwing themselves out of this one (and me out of money) :mad:

[osudoug97]

you should have bailed on uab. the last minute td before the half (17-7) caused the second half line to be s. miss +3 and a half and the total of 24 and a half. I took usm and the under for a little, but i wasn't planning on uab hitting that 55 yarder. currently its 24-14

[Vlyrock]

I think UAB will win the half. They're playing better. S. Miss only has 17 of it's points (and it's TD this half) because of the penalties that converted the 4th downs to 1st downs. Plus S. Miss will run the ball a lot so they won't be punching it in much more.

[Loftin]

Just for the record, I called the S.Miss(+2) bet. :gig:

Should start this week 1-0. :p

[osudoug97]

nice pick loftin, I like your other picks as well except for syracuse. However, pitt does suck so you have got a chance. the under might be the play neither team can score on the school for the blind.

I found another game that i like LA tech minus 20 vs the nice green.

MAKE THAT 6 AND 10 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Vlyrock]

You guys are jumping on that S. Miss too early. UAB's down 6 with 6:00 to go. Just imagine if they didn't shoot themselves in the foot for 3 quarters, then I'd be the one sitting pretty.

[Loftin]

You guys are jumping on that S. Miss too early. UAB's down 6 with 6:00 to go. Just imagine if they didn't shoot themselves in the foot for 3 quarters, then I'd be the one sitting pretty.

Game over, S. Miss wins by 9. :gig:

[Loftin]

nice pick loftin, I like your other picks as well except for syracuse. However, pitt does suck so you have got a chance. the under might be the play neither team can score on the school for the blind.

I found another game that i like LA tech minus 20 vs the nice green.

If both teams have a bad offense, then picking one of them(+13) sounds like a good bet to me. Neither team should have more than 21 points.

[Vlyrock]

Game over, S. Miss wins by 9. :gig:

It was still a game handed to them by UAB...UAB should've won by at least a TD.

[Vlyrock]

Okay, time to risk my 27-16-2 (updated with the UAB loss). I'm still sitting at 62.7%.

Tomorrow, Vlyrock says you should bet on (only picking 5 becuase 0-1 for the week already):

Michigan +3.5 @ Iowa (bought .5 pts)
Virginia (Pick 'em) @ North Carolina
Oklahoma State +15 @ Iowa State
Tennessee +3.5 @ Alabama
Auburn +7 @ LSU (boutgh 1.5 pts)

All road teams!! Hope homes aren't friendly places tomorrow.

[Loftin]

Southern Mississippi(+2) @UAB W
Syracuse(+13) @Pitt L
Northwestern(+11.5) @Michigan State W
North Carolina(-1) vs. Virginia W
Arkansas(+19.5) @Georgia W
Nebraska(+2) @Missouri L
Temple(+36.5) @Clemson W
Tennessee(+3.5) @Alabama W
Washington State(+11.5) @Cal W
Rutgers(-3.5) @UCONN L
San Jose State(+6.5) vs. Hawaii L

[Loftin]

7-4 this week, not too shabby...

[Vlyrock]

I had another 3-3 week. I haven't had a losing week, but this is my 3rd 3-3 week in a row. I did have Temple on my picks but I decided to only post 5 since i had already taken UAB this week.