Why big out of conference games are bad

[Vlyrock]

Here's my thoughts while big out of conference games are bad (for your team).

Take Baylor for example, they play 3 tough non-conference games. This means they've got to make a choice -- run a vanilla offense to prepare for Big XII play and trying to get wins there, most likely resulting in them getting waxed by the opponent. Or, they can unleash the playbook now trying to beat these "big games" out of conference, but then the Big XII opponents have seen what they will/can do and better prepare for them.
Texas A&M is in the same boat with Miami.

On the flip side, Texas Tech can just run streak patterns in all 4 of their non-conference games and then start unleashing their playbook in Big XII play.

Do you guys agree with this line of thinking? From a fan perspective, it'd be great to see your team get up and knock the snot out of a non-conference powerhouse (or big name program) -- but at what cost to your conference season (which in reality is more important)?

You may not agree, but I think this is a good starting point for a discussion.

[Dustin00whoop]

I think that the whole 'hiding what you have' thing is WAY overrated...minus a few trick plays. Coaches know 90% of what Briles is going to do. You only break out that other 10% in a non-conference game if its a critical point & you really think you have a chance to win.

Here is how I think it hurts you. Lets take Baylor's schedule & give it to a team like OSU. OSU very easily could go 1-3 in non-conference with Baylor's schedule. If that happens, you have now taken a team that had a great chance of being a bowl team & completely ruined their confidence. Now they start conference play with no momentum, no confidence & they probably end up dropping a game or two they shouldn't.

That being said, I don't think playing one 'big game' in non-conference is bad at all. You win it & it gives you tons of confidence heading into conference. You lose it & it gives you some tape to see how you stack up against the better opponents. Figure out what works & what doesn't & go back to the drawing board with it before you hit conference. And one lose isn't going to effect your confidence like starting the season 1-3.

[Pumchavas28]

Vly...I don't agree... take USC for example... Ever since Carroll arrived in So. Cal, they have used that Fresno State mentality of anyone anytime...

In the end USC has benifited regardless of what they have had to expose against teams like Va Tech, Notre Dame, Auburn, Arkansas just to name a few...

Let's not forget that their game against Auburn @ Auburn is what shot that season off like a rocket...

The entire Pac-10 knew what USC was going to run, but could not stop it... Did USC have the talent?? Yes?? More so than A&M & definetly more than baylor.... But no one thought of USC as being a legit Power when they went into Auburn at the time...

Also the following year after USC & Va Tech got it on to start the season... USC ran the table against the Pac-10 & Va Tech won the ACC also... both conferences saw everything both programs had (or most of it) and it did not prevent either program from doing good...

It's not like teams have 2 or 3 plays for every formation these days...

McGee said this was the biggest playbook he's dealt with... Knowing that... Regardless of what Miami forces A&M to show, when A&M lines up against ISU, tu, OU, bu or anyone else in the Big XII, that same 3 WR formation or 2 WR formation wont bring the same plays... It will look the same, be the same situation, but stands a good chance of being a different play... the Defense & their DC have to still guess at what play is coming... If it's a run or pass, Play Action, Option or whatever...

Showing your playbook does not bother me...

The prospect of losing those games worries me, but the thought of winning them pumps me up even more & over takes any & all worries or doubts I may have. :gig:

[Pumchavas28]

Also, lets not forget USC's OOC schedule this year...

Virginia
Ohio State
Notre Dame

I wish everyone manned up like this....

[Pumchavas28]

Just to run off a list of future BIG GAMES feel free to check out this link...

http://nationalchamps.net/NCAA/future_schedules/index.htm (http://nationalchamps.net/NCAA/future_schedules/index.htm)

Example: Arizona State has Georgia this year & next year.. They also have Wisconsin, Notre Dame, LSU, & Colorado all on their schedule between now & 2019.

[big monitor]

:rep:to pum. that would be a dream non con schedule.

[Loftin]

I think that the whole 'hiding what you have' thing is WAY overrated...minus a few trick plays.


I agree with this. In college, you have a set number of hours to practice every week. The more plays they have on video, the less time per play they get to prepare for in practice. It evens out, and the bottom line is execution on game day.

[Vlyrock]

Vly...I don't agree... take USC for example... Ever since Carroll arrived in So. Cal, they have used that Fresno State mentality of anyone anytime...

In the end USC has benifited regardless of what they have had to expose against teams like Va Tech, Notre Dame, Auburn, Arkansas just to name a few...

Benefitted how? I could argue USC had national championship talent... but, they always lost to somebody they shouldn't late in the season. So, is that because they weren't as fresh as the other team? Is it because of injuries? Is it because of the playbook stuff I made up earlier? Who knows --- but you don't see National Championship teams playing Top 25 matchups early in the season -- it's rare (IMO). No research behind that statement.

[Pumchavas28]

Maybe because it was Stanford & they thought nothing of them....

No one is exempt from being over-confident...

To counter that... look at LSU last year... they BARELY beat Tulane... TULANE of all teams... And LSU went on to win the Chip with 2 losses to far better teams, but had LSU lost to TULANE early in the season then what????

What about had tu lost to Arkansas State or UCF??? Those aren't big games... should teams stear clear of those teams also????

Should everyone just start scheduling Temple, Idaho & D-1AA programs????

Also, USC's loss last year to Stanford has little to nothing to do with them playing Auburn, Va Tech, or Arkansas in the previous years.

Last year, USC had one of their "softer" OOC schedules & lost to Stanford... The other years, they SQUASHED Stanford with little to no effort with far tougher schedules....

Knowing that, I don't follow you're argument as to their earlier schedule having any real effect on that game.

[Vlyrock]

They did have #14 Nebraska on the road early in the season though. Nebraska turned out not to be tough (near the end of the season), but they were formidable early on (USC won 47-31). Just trying to flame the debate. :) I think both sides can be right (at points), but it's football season and we need some more football discussion!

[Pumchavas28]

Who knows --- but you don't see National Championship teams playing Top 25 matchups early in the season -- it's rare (IMO). No research behind that statement.


2007 Didn't LSU play Va Tech last year????
2006 Didn't Florida play Florida State the year before as part of their OOC, FSU was arguably better than some of the Top 25 Teams????
2005 Didn't tu play Ohio State the year they won it???
2004 USC played Va Tech
2003 USC played Auburn the year they won it....
2002 Ohio State played Texas Tech & #10 Washington State
2001 Miami played both Florida State & Penn State when they won it...

So going back through just this Decade... I don't think you are right. ;)

[Pumchavas28]

They did have #14 Nebraska on the road early in the season though. Nebraska turned out not to be tough (near the end of the season), but they were formidable early on (USC won 47-31). Just trying to flame the debate. :) I think both sides can be right (at points), but it's football season and we need some more football discussion!


True... but USC didn't win the Championiship also... Which was part of your argument. ;)

Other than the Gators playing Florida State late & FSU not being ranked at the time... The Gators are the only team to NOT play a ranked opponent in their OOC & win the Chip since 2000 when OU did it also.

[Pumchavas28]

Using those odds.... I would say that National Champ could come from....

USC
Ohio State
Arizona State
Georgia
Alabama
Clemson
Illinois
Clemson
Kansas
South Florida


All these teams are playing a Pre-Season ranked opponent in their early OOC schedule.... The National Champ stands a pretty good chance of coming from this group of teams....