NCAA Bid Projection, Part IV

[Vlyrock]

Updated for Loftin, here's the automatic bid winners... I don't believe K-State is a "lock", so I've moved them down to the strong bubble. With Georgia and Illinois still alive, they have the potential to steal 2 automatic bids.

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

1. ACC Champ (DUKE/CLEMSON)
2. UMBC (America East Champ)
3. Belmont (Atlantic Sun Champ)
4. Temple (Atlantic-10 Champ)
5. Pittsburgh (Big East Champ)
6. Portland State (Big Sky Champ)
7. Winthrop (Big South Champ)
8. Big Ten Champ (ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN)
9. Big XII Champ (TEXAS/KANSAS)
10. Cal State Fullerton (Big West Champ)
11. Siena (Colonial Champ)
12. Memphis (Conference USA Champ)
13. Butler (Horizon Champ)
14. Cornell (Ivy Champ)
15. George Mason (MAAC Champ)
16. Kent State (MAC Champ)
17. Coppin State (MEAC Champ)
18. Drake (Missouri Valley Champ)
19. UNLV (Mountain West Champ)
20. Mount St. Mary's (Northeast Champ)
21. Austin Peay (Ohio Valley Champ)
22. UCLA (PAC-10 Champ)
23. American (Patriot League Champ)
24. SEC Champ (GEORGIA/ARKANSAS)
25. Davidson (Southern Champ)
26. Southland Champ (UT-Arlington/Northwestern State)
27. Oral Roberts (Summit Champ)
28. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt Champ)
29. Mississippi Valley State (SWAC Champ)
30. Boise State (WAC Champ)
31. San Diego (WCC Champ)

Bubble-Poppers Still Alive:
Georgia (plays Arkansas in the SEC Championship)
Illinois (plays Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship)

NCAA Tournament Locks:
North Carolina (30-2[15-2], RPI #2, SOS #3)
Duke (27-4[14-3], RPI #4, SOS #10)
Clemson (22-8[11-6], RPI #23, SOS #46)
Wisconsin (27-4[17-2], RPI #13, SOS #69)
Kansas (28-3[14-3], RPI #8, SOS #60)
Texas (26-5[14-3], RPI #5, SOS #6)
Arkansas (21-10[10-7], RPI #34, SOS #34)
Xavier (27-6[15-3], RPI #9, SOS #20)
Georgetown (27-4[17-3], RPI #7, SOS #39)
Louisville (24-8[14-5], RPI #12, SOS #5)
Connecticut (24-8[13-6], RPI #16, SOS #30)
Marquette (23-9[13-8], RPI #20, SOS #19)
Notre Dame (24-7[14-5], RPI #25, SOS #82)
West Virginia (23-10[13-8], RPI #26, SOS #40)
Michigan State (25-7[13-6], RPI #14, SOS #50)
Indiana (25-7[14-5], RPI #22, SOS #56)
Purdue (24-8[15-4], RPI #46, SOS #113)
Oklahoma (22-10[10-7], RPI #28, SOS #18)
Texas A&M (23-9[10-8], RPI #40, SOS #58)
BYU (27-6[16-2], RPI #21, SOS #105)
Stanford (26-6[15-5], RPI #15, SOS #61)
Washington State (24-8[12-8], RPI #19, SOS #42)
USC (21-11[12-8], RPI #29, SOS #9)
Tennessee (28-3[15-2], RPI #1, SOS #1)
Vanderbilt (26-7[11-7], RPI #10, SOS #37)
Mississippi State (22-9[13-4], RPI #36, SOS #54)
Gonzaga (25-7[14-2], RPI #31, SOS #93)

There's 31 automatic bids, and there are 27 at-large locks. 2 play each other in the finals of their tournament, so that knocks the number of at-large teams to 25. Assuming one of the "bubble-poppers" wins in an upset, let's assume 26 spots get taken (these 25, plus 1). In total, that makes the total in at 57. 8 spots are now available for the at-large teams. Of those available, here are the 8 I think get in (Loftin can weigh in on his own).

STRONG BUBBLE:
Kentucky (18-11[12-4], RPI #47, SOS #15)
Kansas State (19-11[10-7], RPI #50, SOS #23)
St. Joseph's (21-11[12-7], RPI #42, SOS #51)
Miami (Fl.) (21-10[9-9], RPI #30, SOS #36)
Arizona (18-14[9-11], RPI #41, SOS #2)
Baylor (20-10[9-8], RPI #43, SOS #43)
South Alabama (24-6[17-3], RPI #37, SOS #124)
St. Mary's (24-6[12-3], RPI #38, SOS #136)
--cut line if Georgia or Illinois wins--
Ohio State (19-13[10-9], RPI #47, SOS #14)
--Ohio State in if neither win--
Virginia Tech (19-12[10-7], RPI #54, SOS #52)
Illinois State (23-9[15-6], RPI #33, SOS #73)
Oregon (18-13[9-10], RPI #59, SOS #33)

WEAK BUBBLE:

Most of these teams are already at the point where they have a 0% chance. Some are still in the hunt but need a lot of help. Odds are, though, that at least 1-2 from this group somehow make it in. This will pretty much be your early look at the NIT field.

UAB (22-10[12-5], RPI #55, SOS #94)
Houston (22-9[11-6], RPI #80, SOS #140)
Florida State (19-14[8-10], RPI #57, SOS #13)
Maryland (18-14[8-9], RPI #81, SOS #27)
Oklahoma State (16-15[8-10], RPI #70, SOS #11)
Texas Tech (15-15[7-10], RPI #66, SOS #4)
Nebraska (19-12[8-10], RPI #92, SOS #96)
Arizona State (19-12[9-10], RPI #82, SOS #77)
Ole Miss (21-10[7-10], RPI #48, SOS #65)
Florida (21-11[8-9], RPI #69, SOS #88)
Villanova (20-12[10-10], RPI #50, SOS #45)
Syracuse (19-13[9-10], RPI #54, SOS #8)
Minnesota (20-12[10-10], RPI #87, SOS #110)
Massachusetts (21-10[10-7], RPI #44, SOS #68)
Temple (20-12[13-5], RPI #56, SOS #49)
Charlotte (20-13[11-8], RPI #68, SOS #64)
Rhode Island (21-11[7-10], RPI #77, SOS #108)
Creighton (20-10[11-9], RPI #45, SOS #71)
Southern Illinois (17-14[11-8], RPI #61, SOS #15)
New Mexico (24-8[11-6], RPI #60, SOS #152)
San Diego State (19-12[10-8], RPI #75, SOS #98)
Akron (23-9[13-5], RPI #74, SOS #156)
Virginia Commonwealth (24-7[16-4], RPI #53, SOS #159)
Stephen F. Austin (22-5[14-4], RPI #72, SOS #260)
IUPUI (23-7[17-4], RPI #73, SOS #238)

[Superaggie79]

Doug Gottleib had a great point about Kentucky. All they've done is win 12 games in a terrible conference this year. They've lost to Houston, Gardner Webb, murdered by Vandy...no nonleague win in the top 250, no road win anywhere in the top 140 and 5-10 against the top 100 -- but the SEC surge when the roster got healthy definitely carries weight as the Cats are one of the few teams pushing their way in instead of out. The problem is that they're no longer healthy and isn't the point to be the best at large teams now?

[Vlyrock]

They aren't healthy, but kept winning with Patterson. Winning 11 of their last 14, they have beaten ranked teams in Top 5 Tennessee and Top 20 Vanderbilt. They have an RPI in the top 50, and the #15 ranked strength of schedule, so I think that helps. They struggled early, but the hot play down the stretch gets them in.

[Superaggie79]

they're 2-2 without patterson at the end of the season

[Conan]

North Carolina is playing Clemson for the ACC championship. Duke is in anyway, but just to clarify your post.

[Superaggie79]

And I think they've just benefitted from playing in a seriously weak league

[Conan]

I just went over all the teams on the lists. I would include in my predictions every team that is on Vlyrock's Locks.

Of the strong and weak bubble teams I spent some time calculating RPI, SOS and looking over the teams' recent records to finish the season, ect...

I came up with 20 legit teams to fill 10 remaining spots. Then I was able to make some assumptions and came up with an aggregate score I made up for each remaining team. I know this is not interesting or accurate to true life, but here are my last 10 teams to make the tourney:

1.) Miami (Fl)
2.) Illinois State
3.) Baylor
4.) South Alabama
5.) Arizona
6.) St. Mary's
7.) Kansas State
8.) Ohio State
9.) Massachusetts
10.) Villanova

I took out Oregon, Virginia Tech and Kentucky. I think Oregon and Virginia Tech have a very slim shot, while Kentucky is a toss up to get a bid.

[Loftin]

I think K-State is a lock, even though Vly and Conan both have them as a bubble team. They went 10-6 in the Big XII (#2 conference in RPI), they have quality wins over Oklahoma, A&M and Kansas, and I can't see any scenario where the NCAA leaves Beasley out of March Madness (cry conspiracy theory all you want, but it would be financially stupid for them to leave out the likely #1 overall pick in this year's draft).

[Vlyrock]

So, i missed Oregon...dangit. Oh, and Villanova.