Loftin
03-15-2008, 09:37 AM
Ok, so there's been a lot of surprises in the last 2 days. Here's what I've got so far:
AUTOMATIC BIDS:
1. ACC Champ
2. America East Champ
3. Belmont (Atlantic Sun Champ)
4. Atlantic-10 Champ
5. Big East Champ
6. Portland State (Big Sky Champ)
7. Winthrop (Big South Champ)
8. Big Ten Champ
9. Big XII Champ
10. Big West Champ
11. Siena (Colonial Champ)
12. Conference USA Champ
13. Butler (Horizon Champ)
14. Cornell (Ivy Champ)
15. George Mason (MAAC Champ)
16. MAC Champ
17. MEAC Champ
18. Drake (Missouri Valley Champ)
19. Mountain West Champ
20. Mount St. Mary's (Northeast Champ)
21. Austin Peay (Ohio Valley Champ)
22. PAC-10 Champ
23. American (Patriot League Champ)
24. SEC Champ
25. Davidson (Southern Champ)
26. Southland Champ
27. Oral Roberts (Summit Champ)
28. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt Champ)
29. SWAC Champ
30. WAC Champ
31. San Diego (WCC Champ)
NCAA Tournament Locks:
Texas A&M and Arkansas were added to this list:
Duke (27-4[14-3], RPI #4, SOS #10)
North Carolina (30-2[15-2], RPI #2, SOS #3)
Clemson (22-8[11-6], RPI #23, SOS #46)
Xavier (27-6[15-3], RPI #9, SOS #20)
Georgetown (27-4[17-3], RPI #7, SOS #39)
Louisville (24-8[14-5], RPI #12, SOS #5)
Connecticut (24-8[13-6], RPI #16, SOS #30)
Pitt (24-9[13-8], RPI #18, SOS #32)
Marquette (23-9[13-8], RPI #20, SOS #19)
Notre Dame (24-7[14-5], RPI #25, SOS #82)
West Virginia (23-10[13-8], RPI #26, SOS #40)
Wisconsin (27-4[17-2], RPI #13, SOS #69)
Michigan State (25-7[13-6], RPI #14, SOS #50)
Indiana (25-7[14-5], RPI #22, SOS #56)
Purdue (24-8[15-4], RPI #46, SOS #113)
Kansas (28-3[14-3], RPI #8, SOS #60)
Texas (26-5[14-3], RPI #5, SOS #6)
Oklahoma (22-10[10-7], RPI #28, SOS #18)
Kansas State (19-11[10-7], RPI #52, SOS #28)
Texas A&M (23-9[10-8], RPI #40, SOS #58)
Memphis (32-1[18-0], RPI #3, SOS #25)
Kent State (27-6[15-3], RPI #24, SOS #120)
BYU (27-6[16-2], RPI #21, SOS #105)
UNLV (24-7[14-4], RPI #27, SOS #78)
UCLA (29-3[18-2], RPI #6, SOS #22)
Stanford (26-6[15-5], RPI #15, SOS #61)
Washington State (24-8[12-8], RPI #19, SOS #42)
USC (21-11[12-8], RPI #29, SOS #9)
Tennessee (28-3[15-2], RPI #1, SOS #1)
Vanderbilt (26-7[11-7], RPI #10, SOS #37)
Mississippi State (22-9[13-4], RPI #36, SOS #54)
Arkansas (21-10[10-7], RPI #34, SOS #34)
Gonzaga (25-7[14-2], RPI #31, SOS #93)
There's 31 automatic bids, and I have 33 at-large locks. I think that 9 of the remaining at-large bids will go to teams I have as locks. That would leave 10 at-large berths for "bubble teams."
STRONG BUBBLE:
If there are 10 spots available, these are the teams I think will take them.
Virginia Tech (19-12[10-7], RPI #58, SOS #51)
Miami (Fl.) (21-10[9-9], RPI #30, SOS #36)
Baylor (20-10[9-8], RPI #43, SOS #43)
Illinois State (23-9[15-6], RPI #33, SOS #73)
Arizona (18-14[9-11], RPI #41, SOS #2)
Kentucky (18-11[12-4], RPI #49, SOS #16)
South Alabama (24-6[17-3], RPI #37, SOS #124)
St. Mary's (24-6[12-3], RPI #38, SOS #136)
Ohio State (19-13[10-9], RPI #47, SOS #14)
St. Joseph's (21-11[12-7], RPI #42, SOS #55)
WEAK BUBBLE:
Most of these teams are already at the point where they have a 0% chance. Some are still in the hunt but need a lot of help. Odds are, though, that at least 1-2 from this group somehow make it in. This will pretty much be your early look at the NIT field.
UAB (22-10[12-5], RPI #55, SOS #94)
Houston (22-9[11-6], RPI #80, SOS #140)
Florida State (19-14[8-10], RPI #57, SOS #13)
Maryland (18-14[8-9], RPI #81, SOS #27)
Oklahoma State (16-15[8-10], RPI #70, SOS #11)
Texas Tech (15-15[7-10], RPI #66, SOS #4)
Nebraska (19-12[8-10], RPI #92, SOS #96)
Oregon (18-13[9-10], RPI #59, SOS #33)
Arizona State (19-12[9-10], RPI #82, SOS #77)
Ole Miss (21-10[7-10], RPI #48, SOS #65)
Florida (21-11[8-9], RPI #69, SOS #88)
Villanova (20-12[10-10], RPI #50, SOS #45)
Syracuse (19-13[9-10], RPI #54, SOS #8)
Minnesota (20-12[10-10], RPI #87, SOS #110)
Massachusetts (21-10[10-7], RPI #44, SOS #68)
Temple (20-12[13-5], RPI #56, SOS #49)
Charlotte (20-13[11-8], RPI #68, SOS #64)
Rhode Island (21-11[7-10], RPI #77, SOS #108)
Creighton (20-10[11-9], RPI #45, SOS #71)
Southern Illinois (17-14[11-8], RPI #61, SOS #15)
New Mexico (24-8[11-6], RPI #60, SOS #152)
San Diego State (19-12[10-8], RPI #75, SOS #98)
Akron (23-9[13-5], RPI #74, SOS #156)
Virginia Commonwealth (24-7[16-4], RPI #53, SOS #159)
Stephen F. Austin (22-5[14-4], RPI #72, SOS #260)
IUPUI (23-7[17-4], RPI #73, SOS #238)
If you don't believe me that Texas A&M is a lock, and you want the bubble teams to lose and locks to get auto bids, here's what you need to root for today:
Memphis over Tulsa
Georgia over Kentucky
North Carolina over Virginia Tech
Illinois over Minnesota
Kent State over Akron
Mississippi State over Kentucky (assuming they beat Georgia)
AUTOMATIC BIDS:
1. ACC Champ
2. America East Champ
3. Belmont (Atlantic Sun Champ)
4. Atlantic-10 Champ
5. Big East Champ
6. Portland State (Big Sky Champ)
7. Winthrop (Big South Champ)
8. Big Ten Champ
9. Big XII Champ
10. Big West Champ
11. Siena (Colonial Champ)
12. Conference USA Champ
13. Butler (Horizon Champ)
14. Cornell (Ivy Champ)
15. George Mason (MAAC Champ)
16. MAC Champ
17. MEAC Champ
18. Drake (Missouri Valley Champ)
19. Mountain West Champ
20. Mount St. Mary's (Northeast Champ)
21. Austin Peay (Ohio Valley Champ)
22. PAC-10 Champ
23. American (Patriot League Champ)
24. SEC Champ
25. Davidson (Southern Champ)
26. Southland Champ
27. Oral Roberts (Summit Champ)
28. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt Champ)
29. SWAC Champ
30. WAC Champ
31. San Diego (WCC Champ)
NCAA Tournament Locks:
Texas A&M and Arkansas were added to this list:
Duke (27-4[14-3], RPI #4, SOS #10)
North Carolina (30-2[15-2], RPI #2, SOS #3)
Clemson (22-8[11-6], RPI #23, SOS #46)
Xavier (27-6[15-3], RPI #9, SOS #20)
Georgetown (27-4[17-3], RPI #7, SOS #39)
Louisville (24-8[14-5], RPI #12, SOS #5)
Connecticut (24-8[13-6], RPI #16, SOS #30)
Pitt (24-9[13-8], RPI #18, SOS #32)
Marquette (23-9[13-8], RPI #20, SOS #19)
Notre Dame (24-7[14-5], RPI #25, SOS #82)
West Virginia (23-10[13-8], RPI #26, SOS #40)
Wisconsin (27-4[17-2], RPI #13, SOS #69)
Michigan State (25-7[13-6], RPI #14, SOS #50)
Indiana (25-7[14-5], RPI #22, SOS #56)
Purdue (24-8[15-4], RPI #46, SOS #113)
Kansas (28-3[14-3], RPI #8, SOS #60)
Texas (26-5[14-3], RPI #5, SOS #6)
Oklahoma (22-10[10-7], RPI #28, SOS #18)
Kansas State (19-11[10-7], RPI #52, SOS #28)
Texas A&M (23-9[10-8], RPI #40, SOS #58)
Memphis (32-1[18-0], RPI #3, SOS #25)
Kent State (27-6[15-3], RPI #24, SOS #120)
BYU (27-6[16-2], RPI #21, SOS #105)
UNLV (24-7[14-4], RPI #27, SOS #78)
UCLA (29-3[18-2], RPI #6, SOS #22)
Stanford (26-6[15-5], RPI #15, SOS #61)
Washington State (24-8[12-8], RPI #19, SOS #42)
USC (21-11[12-8], RPI #29, SOS #9)
Tennessee (28-3[15-2], RPI #1, SOS #1)
Vanderbilt (26-7[11-7], RPI #10, SOS #37)
Mississippi State (22-9[13-4], RPI #36, SOS #54)
Arkansas (21-10[10-7], RPI #34, SOS #34)
Gonzaga (25-7[14-2], RPI #31, SOS #93)
There's 31 automatic bids, and I have 33 at-large locks. I think that 9 of the remaining at-large bids will go to teams I have as locks. That would leave 10 at-large berths for "bubble teams."
STRONG BUBBLE:
If there are 10 spots available, these are the teams I think will take them.
Virginia Tech (19-12[10-7], RPI #58, SOS #51)
Miami (Fl.) (21-10[9-9], RPI #30, SOS #36)
Baylor (20-10[9-8], RPI #43, SOS #43)
Illinois State (23-9[15-6], RPI #33, SOS #73)
Arizona (18-14[9-11], RPI #41, SOS #2)
Kentucky (18-11[12-4], RPI #49, SOS #16)
South Alabama (24-6[17-3], RPI #37, SOS #124)
St. Mary's (24-6[12-3], RPI #38, SOS #136)
Ohio State (19-13[10-9], RPI #47, SOS #14)
St. Joseph's (21-11[12-7], RPI #42, SOS #55)
WEAK BUBBLE:
Most of these teams are already at the point where they have a 0% chance. Some are still in the hunt but need a lot of help. Odds are, though, that at least 1-2 from this group somehow make it in. This will pretty much be your early look at the NIT field.
UAB (22-10[12-5], RPI #55, SOS #94)
Houston (22-9[11-6], RPI #80, SOS #140)
Florida State (19-14[8-10], RPI #57, SOS #13)
Maryland (18-14[8-9], RPI #81, SOS #27)
Oklahoma State (16-15[8-10], RPI #70, SOS #11)
Texas Tech (15-15[7-10], RPI #66, SOS #4)
Nebraska (19-12[8-10], RPI #92, SOS #96)
Oregon (18-13[9-10], RPI #59, SOS #33)
Arizona State (19-12[9-10], RPI #82, SOS #77)
Ole Miss (21-10[7-10], RPI #48, SOS #65)
Florida (21-11[8-9], RPI #69, SOS #88)
Villanova (20-12[10-10], RPI #50, SOS #45)
Syracuse (19-13[9-10], RPI #54, SOS #8)
Minnesota (20-12[10-10], RPI #87, SOS #110)
Massachusetts (21-10[10-7], RPI #44, SOS #68)
Temple (20-12[13-5], RPI #56, SOS #49)
Charlotte (20-13[11-8], RPI #68, SOS #64)
Rhode Island (21-11[7-10], RPI #77, SOS #108)
Creighton (20-10[11-9], RPI #45, SOS #71)
Southern Illinois (17-14[11-8], RPI #61, SOS #15)
New Mexico (24-8[11-6], RPI #60, SOS #152)
San Diego State (19-12[10-8], RPI #75, SOS #98)
Akron (23-9[13-5], RPI #74, SOS #156)
Virginia Commonwealth (24-7[16-4], RPI #53, SOS #159)
Stephen F. Austin (22-5[14-4], RPI #72, SOS #260)
IUPUI (23-7[17-4], RPI #73, SOS #238)
If you don't believe me that Texas A&M is a lock, and you want the bubble teams to lose and locks to get auto bids, here's what you need to root for today:
Memphis over Tulsa
Georgia over Kentucky
North Carolina over Virginia Tech
Illinois over Minnesota
Kent State over Akron
Mississippi State over Kentucky (assuming they beat Georgia)